SoccerAnalytics

Read the game by its numbers.

  1. A One-Goal Lead at 90 Minutes Now Slips One Time in Seven

    For 21 seasons, Premier League sides a goal up at 90:00 won 93.3% of the time. Since added time grew in 2023-24: 85.3%. Two-goal leads are as safe as ever.

    · 11 min read

  2. The Round After an International Break Has Fewer Upsets, Not More

    In 767 first matches after an international break since 2003, underdogs won 145 times against 174.5 expected. The favourite's edge lasts one match.

    · 13 min read

  3. Four Points From Six Games Usually Sinks a Promoted Club. Not the Rest

    Since 2003-04, 21 of 27 promoted clubs with four points or fewer after six matches went down. Established clubs on the same total: 22 of 64.

    · 10 min read

  4. Three Games Tell You How a Team Plays, Not How Good It Is

    All 380 games of 2025-26, resampled: after three matches a club's passing already agrees with the rest of its season at 0.76. Points sit at 0.39, cards at 0.27.

    · 15 min read

  5. Finishing and Saving Rates Have No Memory

    Last season a club's finishing and saving rates at halfway said nothing about its second half. Four rounds into 2026-27, those rates explain most of the table.

    · 11 min read

  6. The Shots-on-Target Rule

    In decided 2026 World Cup games, the team matching or beating its opponent on shots on target won 70 of 80, and 24 of 28 knockouts.

    · 7 min read

  7. Does Europe Cost English Clubs at the Weekend? Three Seasons Can't Find It

    After a European night, English clubs took 1.56 league points a match against 1.62 expected. Within the same club and season the gap is -0.024: not measurable.

    · 8 min read

Data Deep-Dives · · 8 min read

After Five Games, Manchester United Led the League in Shots and Sat Twelfth

After five games United had 22.6 shots a game and 5 points. Across 2025-26, a club's five-game shot count predicted its next results better than its points did.

Two-panel chart. Left: a scatter of the twenty Premier League clubs after five matches of 2026-27, shots per game on the horizontal axis against points on the vertical. The cloud is diffuse with a nearly flat dashed trend line; the correlation is plus 0.126. Manchester United sit far right at 22.6 shots a game with 5 points, labelled most shots in the division and twelfth. Manchester City sit top at 13.6 shots and 15 points. Tottenham Hotspur sit bottom at 14.4 shots and 2 points, labelled twentieth and the division's most corners at 7.6 a game. Right: grouped bars showing how well each five-game measure predicted points per game to come, replayed across 2025-26. Dark green bars are the opening five games predicting the remaining 33 across twenty clubs: shots 0.44, goal difference 0.37, possession 0.38, points 0.28, shots on target 0.07, corners 0.33. Blue bars are any five games predicting the next ten across 480 rolling windows: shots 0.43, goal difference 0.44, possession 0.42, points 0.38, shots on target 0.33, corners 0.27. A dashed red line marks what the table itself is worth at 0.38, and an error bar shows the plus or minus 0.24 standard error at an effective sample of twenty.
Left: this season's shot column against this season's table, five games in. Right: the same five-game measures replayed across last season, scored on how well they predicted the points that followed. Data: ESPN public feeds, per-team box scores.

Premier League 2026-27

Matches to 1 November
Matches to 1 November; shots are per match. Source: ESPN public scoreboard and box scores, retrieved 1 November 2026.
#ClubPWDLGDPtsShots
1Arsenal9801+92413.0
2Manchester City9702+102115.3
3Brighton & Hove Albion9612+171916.6
4Chelsea9513+41613.9
5Liverpool9432+21515.6
6Brentford9351+71414.0
7AFC Bournemouth9333+11214.1
8Tottenham Hotspur933301216.6
9Aston Villa9333−31211.9
10Hull City9252+11110.4
11Leeds United9252+11111.7
12Newcastle United8323−21112.0
13Ipswich Town9324−41111.0
14Everton8242−11013.6
15Fulham9234−2914.3
16Coventry City9306−7910.8
17Manchester United9144−5718.6
18Crystal Palace9216−12710.0
19Nottingham Forest9135−6616.9
20Sunderland9126−10512.6

Latest results

31 October – 1 November
  1. Sat 31 OctChelsea2–0Manchester United
  2. Sat 31 OctAFC Bournemouth2–0Leeds United
  3. Sat 31 OctBrentford2–0Nottingham Forest
  4. Sat 31 OctCoventry City3–1Sunderland
  5. Sat 31 OctManchester City0–1Brighton & Hove Albion
  6. Sat 31 OctHull City2–2Ipswich Town
  7. Sat 31 OctTottenham Hotspur2–0Crystal Palace
  8. Sat 31 OctAston Villa1–1Fulham
  9. Sun 1 NovLiverpool0–1Arsenal

Analysis

All 35 deep dives

  1. Home Advantage Didn't Die. The Results Column Can't See It

    Home and away split the first 40 matches of 2026-27 evenly, yet the shot, corner and card columns keep the home edge. Plus a decade of home-advantage data.

    · 17 min read

  2. The Whistle Is Busier and the Cards Are Not

    Three rounds in, the Premier League is calling 1.65 more fouls a match than last season and booking fewer of them per foul. Neither number clears the noise.

    · 14 min read

  3. Schedule Strength Is Real. It Still Won't Fix the Table

    Two rounds in, who you drew explains a quarter of the Premier League table. Correcting for it re-ranks nine of fifteen clubs not at all.

    · 13 min read

  4. Matchweek Two: One Heist Refunded, One Doubled Down, and the Ball Keeps Losing

    Matchweek two split matchweek one's heists: Ipswich paid theirs back 2-5, Hull stole again, and 10 of the season's 15 winners have had under half the ball.

    · 8 min read

  5. Matchweek One Under the Hood: Ten Box Scores, Two Heists, and a Bad Weekend for Possession

    Matchweek one's ten box scores, audited: six of nine winners had under 50% possession, and shots on target called seven of the nine results.

    · 6 min read

  6. The Table Lies Until October: Last Season's Premier League, Replayed From Matchweek One

    All 380 matches of 2025-26, replayed: the table agreed with May at 0.43 after one game and crossed 0.75 only around game ten.

    · 5 min read

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About this site

SoccerAnalytics.net is an independent publication about the measurable side of football. The aim is simple: take the metrics that now shape how clubs recruit, coaches plan and broadcasters talk — expected goals, expected threat, PPDA, progressive actions, post-shot xG — and explain what they actually measure, where they come from, and where they break.

Nothing here is hand-waved. Every chart and table is built from public data — StatsBomb open data for the 2022 World Cup deep dives, ESPN’s public scoreboard and match-summary feeds for every 2026 World Cup and Premier League piece, and Understat for two older league tables — and each piece names the dataset it was computed from and writes the computation out, with most of those datasets served on this site so you can re-derive the numbers yourself. When a figure can't be sourced from a real data pull, it doesn't get published.

If you want the metrics explained honestly, the tutorials to compute them yourself, and the occasional argument about what the data does and doesn't prove, you're in the right place. Start with the stat explainers, or learn to pull the data yourself.